RE Market Pulse – Week of October 27, 2025

Katy O’Neil, Coldwell Banker Realty

I follow Jason Waugh president of Coldwell Banker Real Affiliates for Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC. In this role, Waugh oversees the brand’s marketing, franchise sales and operations teams who support a network of 100,000 affiliated sales professionals in more than 2,700 offices across 39 countries and territories. Each week, he’ll analyze the evolving dynamics of the market, identifying emerging trends, shifts in momentum, and key considerations for real estate professionals. With that said, last week, the National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales rose 1.5% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year in September, reaching a 7-month high. Median home prices increased 2.1%, marking 27 consecutive months of annual growth. Inflation accelerated to 3%, marking the third straight month of upward movement. The Federal Reserve is set to meet Tuesday and Wednesday. Despite the recent inflation uptick, it is widely expected that policymakers will lower the Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points, prioritizing a cooling labor market over progress against inflation. Meanwhile, mortgage rates declined for the third straight week, with the 30-year fixed average falling to 6.19%, the lowest in over a year.

Below are key events from the third week of October impacting our business. 

October 27, 2025

EXISTING-HOME SALES RISE 1.5% IN SEPTEMBER AS FALLING MORTGAGE RATES BOOST DEMAND.  According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September compared to the previous month and 4.1% year-over-year. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the increase to declining mortgage rates and improved housing affordability. The median price for existing homes reached $415,200, a 2.1% gain from September 2024, marking the 27^th consecutive month of annual price appreciation. Total housing inventory stood at 1.55 million units, a 1.3% increase from August and a 14.0% rise year-over-year. The supply of unsold inventory remained steady at 4.6 months, up from 4.2 months in the same period last year. Full story from REALTOR.COM →

• Why this Matters: The recent increase in existing-home sales and inventory reflects improved market accessibility for buyers, driven in part by falling mortgage rates and better affordability. While prices continue to rise, the pace remains moderate, which may offer a window of opportunity for buyers to enter the market before further appreciation. For sellers, 27 consecutive months of price growth underscore strong equity positions and favorable conditions for listing. However, the year-over-year increase of available inventory and buyer activity necessitates strategic pricing, as more options influence buyer behavior. With mortgage rates continuing to decline, a broader pool of qualified buyers may re-enter the market, potentially accelerating sales volume.

INFLATION PICKS UP IN SEPTEMBER. Inflation accelerated in September, reaching its highest level since January 2025, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.0% year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also increased 3.0%, driven in part by a 3.6% rise in the shelter index. While the shelter index rose, the pace of its growth has slowed to its lowest reading since October 2021. Despite persistent inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain an easing stance in response to signs of labor market softening. Full story from EYEONHOUSING →

• Why this Matters: The recent increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) highlights ongoing price pressure. However, the shelter index’s more moderate 3.6% annual growth suggests potential stabilization in housing-related inflation. The combination of easing shelter costs and anticipated monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve may improve affordability and stimulate buyer demand, especially from those who were previously priced out. However, sellers should remain aware of broader economic uncertainties and the potential for increased inventory as builders respond to improving financing conditions. If the Fed proceeds with rate cuts in response to a softening labor market, it could provide much-needed relief to buyers and reinvigorate market activity for both buyers and sellers.

FANNIE MAE FORECASTS LOWER MORTGAGE RATES AHEAD, BUMP IN ORIGINATIONS. Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group has slightly revised its mortgage rate outlook, now projecting rates to end 2025 at 6.3%, down from 6.4%. This modest adjustment is expected to boost single-family mortgage originations to $1.88 trillion in 2025, up from the previous estimate of $1.85 trillion. Compared to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s more optimistic $2 trillion forecast, Fannie Mae maintains a conservative stance. The 2026 mortgage rate projection remains unchanged at 5.9%, while the origination forecast was slightly lowered to $2.32 trillion from $2.35 trillion. Additionally, Fannie Mae raised its 2025 home sales forecast to 4.74 million units (4.065M existing and 673K new), with no change to the 2026 projection of 5.16 million (4.455M existing and 704K new). Full story from HOUSINGWIRE →

• Why this Matters: The slight downward revision in projected mortgage rates for 2025 signals a marginal improvement in borrowing conditions. While modest, this shift could enhance affordability and encourage more buyers to enter the market. The unchanged 2026 rate forecast suggests a gradual easing trend, reinforcing the potential for improved financing opportunities over time. The upward revision in projected home sales reflects growing market confidence and anticipated buyer demand. This could translate into a more active market environment, offering sellers increased opportunities to transact. However, with origination volumes still below MBA’s more optimistic forecast, sellers should remain realistic about pricing and market competition. Overall, the data points to a cautiously optimistic outlook.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Recent declines in mortgage rates and moderation in price growth present an opportunity to improve affordability, encouraging renewed engagement from previously sidelined buyers and potentially increasing market activity. In today’s evolving market environment, maintaining focus amidst uncertainty is critical. Providing consistent leadership, delivering strategic guidance, and equipping clients with timely, data-driven insights are key to fostering confident and informed decision-making. Thank you